This isn't the first open letter to appear on WattsUpWithThat. In fact, the fake skeptics there quite like them. They play to the gallery without ever achieving anything. Let's put ourselves in Jon Stewart's, the intended target's, shoes for a moment. As the star of a popular and respected, at least in some circles, show that pricks the skins of those right wing sausages who sit and glumly watch that tower of truth, Fox News, or listen to Alex Jones (with the sound turned down to protect their hearing), you're likely to find the round file with this one. Why? Because it flags up why you shouldn't bother taking it seriously right from the get go.
The clip and excellent commentary can be found here.
Bob, here's my advice. Anyone who says they are an independent climate researcher is immediately going to look stupid. I could say I am an independent evolution researcher but it isn't really true. I collect fossils. What you have said is that I have no support from the scientific community and that you are highly likely to be a climate science denier.
You confirm that by stating you are a regular contributor to the "award winning" WattsUpWithThat. Wow. Award winning. Awards are all well and good and I am sure that people get a nice fuzzy feeling when someone gives them an award. But the selection process needs to be worthwhile and the award needs to have sufficient recognition. I suspect Jon Stewart knows what a stitch up the WUWT awards are.
Three, count 'em, three ebooks. More wow. Anyone can do an ebook. What you are flogging are pdf files of books that, presumably, you couldn't interest even one of the crank publishers in. If I wanted, I could do the same. People will put more store in a real, physical, printed book published by a reputable publisher with a proper publishing record. Vanity publishing might look good amongst your mates. For Jon Stewart, I suspect less so.
First, let me say that I applaud you and your staff for making The Daily Show a massively entertaining political satire. I enjoy the show thoroughly.Flattery then a lie. Clearly you don't enjoy the show thoroughly otherwise you wouldn't be moaning about it. Understand how that one works, Bob?
During your January 6th episode, however, you expressed beliefs in climate models and in the climate science community…the human-induced global warming wing thereof. Unfortunately, the climate models used to hindcast past climate and to project future climate are so flawed that they are not fit for their intended purposes. And the climate science community under the direction of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has specialized in only one aspect of global warming, which is why the models perform so poorly. I’ll provide evidence for those statements in the following, including data and peer-reviewed scientific studies.Ah, the kernel of the complaint. It's about the climate models which, as we know, are approximations to reality and, although they can give us a valuable insight into what is happening and about to happen, are not sufficiently perfect to give the sorts of answers that climate change deniers would like them to give. Will it rain on my birthday in 2075?
For most people, their understanding of climate science comes from the time around 2006-2007 when there was a lot of interest in global warming and climate change. Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth was getting press and the IPCC and Al Gore were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Things have changed drastically since then. Specialists in many fields of climate science are now writing papers about model failings, and they’re not small problems. They’re fatal flaws. Skeptics have become much better at presenting and illustrating those model failures, too, and describing why they’re important. And there has been a flood of peer-reviewed papers over the past two years, in which climate scientists are trying to explain the hiatus in global warming—with limited success and limited agreement; that is, there’s no consensus on the cause of the pause. Examples are discussed in the very recent Nature article Climate Change: The Case of the Missing Heat by Jeff Tollefson. Those scientists wouldn’t be writing those papers if the climate models had anticipated the current cessation of global surface temperature warming. Unfortunately, with the IPCC’s focus on manmade greenhouse gases, climate scientists still do not know how to model nature’s handiwork. More on this later.I don't know when most people gained their understanding of climate science and I suspect you don't either. Without doing a literature search, I expect climate modellers have always been putting caveats and cautions into their work on climate models because that's what real scientists do. Skeptics of your hue wish that they did something different, then amplify it when they publish something on the subject. It is the same conjuring trick to hide the incline that creationists were doing in the 80s, amply demonstrated by Stephen Jay Gould all those years ago. In an effort to make models better, modellers investigate the models and how the real climate is acting. This is essential, it is normal science and nothing special. It is only the deniers who think this means anything more than trying to understand reality in all its myriad, chaotic forms.
As you well know, Bob, there are plenty of people who listen to the 3% of doctors and a good many of them aren't around any longer to regret it. You have missed an important point in that last sentence, Bob. Climate scientists have examined other hypotheses and found that they are wrong or insignificant. That's an important point. It is one the deniers don't seem to recognise.
Sadly, Bob, some people do go to see someone totally unsuited to checking and treating that lump on their lung. Perhaps it is a visit to a homeopathist who will give them some magically shaken water, or an acupuncturist who will stick some needles in them. They could choose to visit an independent cancer researcher, perhaps on the basis of some posts at an award winning website and the promise of three, count 'em, three ebooks. Or perhaps they will pick an oncologist who has spent many years learning their craft, understanding their science and trying to do something to reverse the process. So, yeah, the analogy is a good one after all.
Another way that it is a good analogy is that many oncologists are studying the effects of human caused cancers - you know, the one's that dare not speak their name at WattsUpWithThat (I shall not be so prissy: lung cancer due to smoking - and if Watts wants to come here and moan, read some of my other posts where I talk about my dad's cancer. Neither of us is special. It was a primary tumour in the lung that did for my dad).
Besides, telling Jon Stewart that you have a record of sending these hopeless, badly spelled, letters to people like George Clooney, that's going to endear him, isn't it?
As you should know, unless you live in a climatically controlled cave, the KNMI did not mean what you think it meant. One way to spot a denier is to see how they respond to evidence that contradicts what they would like others to believe. You fail here, Bob.
Life is too short for one of your pithy open letters, Bob. This one goes on and on and on. I can't be bothered to pick it all apart so I shall skip to the end.
You could knock me down with a feather. Doesn't it strike you as strange that we are at the beginning of this process and that it isn't perfect? It doesn't seem strange to me because I think I have an idea how science works. We learn and feed that learning back into what we already know. Deniers don't learn, don't feed that back in so don't make progress. Bob, you are at the hokey stage of pointing at things and saying that isn't perfect. Climate science, on the other hand, is making progress towards a more complete understanding. And it will do it in spite of the flea bites that you and your cronies inflict.
Jon, if you have any questions, please feel free to leave a comment on any thread at my blog Climate Observations.Bob, I can think of one. Why don't you use your retirement to do some serious reading on the topic? Another: why don't you learn to write at less length and greater precision?
Bob, seriously? You think Jon Stewart is going to give you the name and address of a comedian to help make your next pdf fun to read. He doesn't need to. He could just say take a blue pencil to huge sections of it because you don't half go on. Secondly, he could tell you to get a better title. It's a turn off. A casual reader won't look twice at a title like that. It looks as if it ought to be witty but you need to know what the book is going to tell you, that energy is being sequestered in the deep ocean rather than in the atmosphere just above the surface, to understand the title. Besides, readers who do understand that will know your pdf is full of jokes already. Like the jokes you seem to associate with.
My advice, "Dr" Bob, is to give it up. The climate is changing and it is changing because of human activities. That much is easily demonstrated by climate scientists the world over. Anyone who has watched creationists and intelligent deniers struggle to get themselves heard will know it is not because of a global conspiracy but because their "science" is based on a premise that isn't true: questioning the real science by deniers is not intended to find the truth but to promote an untruth. It takes little intellect to spot what you and Monckton, Willis, Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and others do. The ultimate sign of this is simple. There is plenty of shouting about the consensus at WUWT but no one seems to have done the obvious and repeated the activity of rating the abstracts. If they did, they know what the outcome would be.
And of course it is a denier trick to try to confuse the idea of consensus. It's been around for decades. The public prefers to know there is a consensus (back to the doctors, Bob) because that means the science is well established. The reason there is a consensus is because scientists examine the evidence and come around to that point of view (read this by Phil Plait, in fact read many more of his posts because he deals with science as it is, not as you would wish it to be). It is the evidence, Bob, and that isn't on your side. Forget the models. What do the temperature records say.