Saturday, 6 February 2016

Monckton's non-pause goes into quantum of solace superposition

For many moons now, Christopher Monckton has been touring the denial blogs with his well worn routine: no warming since....  Unfortunately for him, events, dear boy, have resulted in a new act.  The pause that never was is going.

That's because, as Monckton says:
The start-date is not “cherry-picked” so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by the 1998 el Niño. Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend.
But, and here's an important point, the 1997-8 El Nino is part of the hidden cherry pick and so is using the RSS database.  UAH data explodes the non-pause.  Myth busted.

The elephant in the Jacuzzi


What can you make of a statement like this:
The satellite datasets are based on reference measurements made by the most accurate thermometers available – platinum resistance thermometers, which provide an independent verification of the temperature measurements by checking via spaceward mirrors the known temperature of the cosmic background radiation, which is 1% of the freezing point of water, or just 2.73 degrees above absolute zero.
Is it a lie?  Pretty much so, because the satellites are not measuring temperature but radiance and require a whole lot of adjusting to come up with a temperature.   And, for good measure, does the bit I've picked out in bold actually mean anything?  Wiki doesn't list resistance thermometers being used on satellites but Roy Spencer says they are.  Qu & al Satellite Bassed Applications On Climate Change gives details, including the models needed to convert radiance to temperatures and the methods needed to callibrate the instruments.

As you might expect, Monckton thinks he knows more than the experts.

The non-ticking non-time non-bomb

Finally, how long will it be before the Freedom Clock (Fig. T12) reaches 20 years without any global warming? If it does, the climate scare will become unsustainable.
Just in case you want to know the answer to this imponderable question, I'll tell you in a minute.  But first, a pointless graphic from Monckton's article:
18 years 8 months takes us to June 1997.  That pause beginning has changed again but you knew that by now, didn't you?  What you are bursting to know is the answer to Monckton's question: when will the non-pause reach twenty years and thus the entire edifice of modern civilisation climate science collapse in an endless series of fraud trials?  I've searched high and low and found this:
The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures
So now we know.   We know because the authority is impeccable.  It's from Monckton's own article.  Do you think he reads his own stuff?  Sometimes I wonder.
The Stig


 

Ed Mitchell Dies - Now Just 7 Moonwalkers Are Left

One day there will be no one left alive who stood on the Moon and experienced the sight with their own eyes.  Sadly, this Thursday, the sixth man to walk on the Moon passed away, Ed Mitchell.  Unlike all of the other famous names that have left us so far this year, Bowie, Rickman and so on, I did at least get to meet Ed Mitchell.  At least I said hello to him and he responded.

Long term readers of my intermittent post might remember that I became interested in science when I watched Apollo 8 lift off.  By the time Ed Mitchell made his flight, in February 1971, I was a total and utter space nerd and could have bored for England on the subject, at my age group of course.  I was eight then and, for an obscure reason that I never quite lived down, I missed the launch of Apollo 14 live but I do have a recollection of following the landing a few days later, on a dark morning when breakfast TV was a rare treat.

At least I thought I did.   BBC Genome, that invaluable site giving details of BBC programmes over the years, lists the touchdown of Apollo 14 on the lunar surface as being on at 9.45, well after I had gone to school.  My memory must be getting dodgy.

More certainly, I watched the Saturday moonwalk with enthusiasm, as Shepard and Mitchell struggled to find the rim of cone crater, before Shepard hit his two golf shots and they closed out to come home.   He returned a hero.

He did not live the rest of his life as much a hero.  News emerged of his poorly designed experiment into ESP and his interest in UFOs and his long term, well intentioned but ultimately fruitless investigations into the consciousness of the universe, did not put him high up on my list of scientific heroes.  I felt that was such a shame as there was so much good he could have done and of all the Moon walkers I have met, Mitchell was the least approachable (and I've met the legendarily moody Buzz Aldrin).  He had, by that time, good reason.  The idiotic Moon landing conspiracy meme had probably worn him down but the illness and death of one of his sons gave him much sadness.  I am truly sorry Mitchell has now died and I hold in great regard his astronaut accomplishments and respect his sincerity.

Mitchell's passing leaves just seven of the twelve Moon walkers alive:
James Irwin (Apollo 15) died in 1991
Alan Shepard (Apollo 14) died in 1998
Pete Conrad (Apollo 12) died in 1999
Neil Armstrong (Apollo 11 and the first Moon walker) died in 2012

Those left are
Buzz Aldrin
Al Bean
Dave Scott
John Young
Charlie Duke
Gene Cernan
Jack Schmitt

Sunday, 31 January 2016

When will climate deniers admit the game is up?

There's a handful of committed climate change deniers around the world who are both publicly visible and notoriously wrong.  The "famous" ones you can easily list: Watts, Delingpole, Monckton, Spencer, Jim Steele, Nigel Lawson, Willis Eschenbach, Tim Ball...  There's some more but my keyboard is already feeling sullied by merely having those letters typed.

I am guessing that, since 2015 didn't conform to their expectations, that 2016 will probably bury them.  Senator Cruz, currently in second place in the Republican Ugly Contest and likely to be disappointed in his attempt to make Hillary Clinton electable, held a mock trial in the Senate at which it was repeatedly claimed that the satellite data was the best for knowing how the temperature of the planet and that didn't work so well.  Even the people, well some of them, that work on the satellite data came out to tell the world how unreliable it really is.
Who'd have thought?

Not the usual suspects.  They are clinging to the last vestige of denial.  As global temperatures go up, the avenues for denial get closed off.  A year ago, the poor pickings for the deniers focussed on the idea that there was some uncertainty over whether 2014 was the hottest year on record.  When 2015 smashed the previous best, the uncertainty thing was no argument at all.  Cruz got the denial rebuttal in early, but it went like a failed firework.  A bit of fizzing noise, a little smoke then nothing.  I wonder if they will adhere to the firework code and not return to a firework once lit.

As temperatures go up and it becomes more obvious as time goes by that the global temperature is increasing, all that is really left for deniers is simple abuse.  Even the insane ramblings of Lord Monckton and his endlessly repetitive non-pause articles are likely to have to end soon.  No warming since.... will be replaced by warming.  Nick Stokes has calculated what increases in RSS figures is needed to make a significant warming trend.  As we know, Monckton's non-pause is a non-physical reality based maths thing.

Time will tell but when the last pillars of denial fall, so will the denial empire.  Antony Watts will be left with a handful of deluded deniers for company, endless sockpuppeting their comments.  Their last remaining hope is to elect a climate science denying president who can legislate that pi = 3 and win their false argument that way.

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Pause shortens by one month, says Monckton. Yawn.

If it were a real pause, it wouldn't be shortening, would it?  It would be over.


Go here to see the latest in Monckton's repetitive dribble.


And in case you wondered, Monckton has his starting point this month at May 1997.


Where was it last month?


Was it
a) April 1997
b) March 1997
c) February 1997
d) May 1997


Yes, folks.  It was exactly one month earlier, March 1997.  Oh.  What?  That's two months earlier.  Another starting point but if it were one month shorter, surely...   Never mind.  Monckton is exercising his right hand on the keyboards of his mathturbation calculator.  It isn't real.  It wasn't last month and it isn't now.


PS  2015 was the hottest year on record.  Bar none.  Tamino can count.

Sunday, 27 December 2015

2016 - the year ahead

With the benefit of my Mark II time machine (£14,999,999.99 buy it now, manufacturer refurbished from Ebay), I've had a little chance to peak at what the coming twelve months will bring to the world of science, as purveyed by the pseudonymous versions.

January

With the ongoing El Nino raising temperatures around the world, the World Meterological Association proclaims that there is no such thing as winter any longer. Children in large parts of England see no snow at all until there is a flake that lands on the office of Richard Longbloke in Leeds as he is working out which is the correct end of a scart lead to plug in to a VHS player.  He rushes to his desk top to proclaim that since there is snow, global warming must be a scam. 
Richard and friend (right) enjoying a round of golf on 4 January in Yorkshire.
 

February

The leap day confuses climate deniers the world over as temperatures continue to stay well above seasonal averages.  Lord Monckton's Sinclair calculator melts down, not just from the heat but from trying to calculate an extra day's worth of non-existent pause.  He concludes, in an article copy pasted from any he has got his valet to type over the last five years, that there has been no warming since December 2015.  It must be true.  His seaweed and pine cone say so.  

Talking of seaweed, Piers Corbyn, brother of the less charismatic Jezza, proves the law of averages correct and accidently gets the weather forecast right.  His forecast that February would see record levels of snow in England proves uncannily accurate, and the Daily Express plasters the fact on its front page.  Unfortunately, and unless you subscribe to Corbett's weather site, you wouldn't know that Corby was predicting massive snow drifts and not the fact that London hadn't seen a snowflake for an entire year.
Piers Corbyn, better looking as well as clevererer

March

As spring springs and the Easter Bunny loads up his whatever to deliver chocolate eggs and type II diabetes and atherosclerosis to the overfed youngsters of the Western world, deniers ask the killer question: if the world is so warm, why don't all those chocolate eggs melt before the lovely kiddies find them on their Easter Egg hunt?  Can't answer that one, can you, rotten commie fascist climate scientists?

The melting point of chocolate is 30C.  And, yes, plenty of eggs were discovered in a mushy, molten state by disappointed six year olds.  But they don't make the news.  Well, not the news fit for Fox or the loony news sites on the Internet.  
Not to be left outside

April

Lynne McTaggart notices that she hasn't misrepresented Richard Dawkins for ten minutes so she organises, via Facebook, an intention experiment to get his books taken off the shelves of all good bookstores around the world.  She manages to find six like minded people with nothing better to do with their brain cells than try to think the impossible.  Books fly off the shelves that day, but only because people have heard of the experiment and go to see what all the fuss is about.  Dawkins earns enough in one day to write this year's Christmas best seller The McTaggart Delusion (two pages long, and one is blank).
Someone has to write fortune cookie inserts

May

With temperatures hitting 50C at Wembley, the FA Cup Final, between a team of overpaid wind kickers and another team of overpaid wind kickers, is abandoned at half time when seven of the players are rushed to hospital with heat stroke.  Sepp Blatter says "I told you it was possible to play football in the mild climate of the Arabian peninsula.  This proves that England is an unsuitable place for a World Cup."

David Beckham was unavailable for comment but Piers Morgan wasn't.
An overpaid footballer at the FA Cup, according to Lord Monckton

June

The growing influence of Prince Charles on royal matters is revealed when the Queen's birthday honours list names Michael Mann as a new royal prince, third in line for the throne, even though he isn't royal and isn't British.  A new law is rushed through so he can sit in the House of Lords.  His first speech is, and I quote it in its entirety: "Eat ermine, Monckton".

In the small print, some honours are taken away.  Lord Ridley of Opencast Northern Failed Bank is demoted to lowly Mr Matt Ridley.  Lord Lawson reverts to Nigella Lawson and James Delingpole's English degree is revoked on the grounds that he clearly can't read.

July

Richard Tol, the world's greatest economist and knitwear model, writes to inform me that he hasn't been mentioned at all in this post.  I apologise for the offence to his self esteem that such neglect on my part must have caused and I have sent him a copy of the book How To Be Modest as compensation.  

In other news, Tol confirms that he has disproved the L'Oreal claim that you're worth it.
Now he's worth it

August

El Nino finally fizzles out and things start to get back to the new normal of being a lot hotter than it was when I was young.  The Californian drought ends when someone gets a very long pipe and connects it to a tap in Vancouver at one end and a sprinkler in San Francisco at the other.  

In Queensland, Brisbane is officially declared molten. Wildfires have engulfed half of New South Wales and Adelaide is now desert.  Lord Monckton arrives in what he descibes as mild for the time of year temperatures but needs immediate medical attention for heat stroke as the temperature inside his tweed threee piece suit reaches the flash point of bri-nylon, with paramedics fearing that his Monckton shirt(TM) will spontaneously combust.  In a press conference from this refrigerated bed, he blames communists, Barack Obama's birth certificate and an overheating battery in his Casio pocket calculator for the unfortunate incident.  He makes a fully recovery.  The calculator, however, still churns out dodgy results.
before the smoke damage

September

The long running libel case between Mark Steyn (pronounced Stine, not Stain) and Prince Michael Mann comes to a conclusion with the judgement that Steyn had libelled Mann and that, as everyone already knew, Mann had been exonerated by multiple investigations already.  "This is a bad day for free speech," said Anthony Watts who has banned or put on permanent moderation.  dbstealey was available for comment but it was so stupid even my fingers can't be bothered to type it out.  Go here for some of db's sock puppet comments.
irony

October

Black Friday sales begin at the pay per paper journal The International Journal of the Barely Open Atmospheric Society as volume 1, issue 1 finally rolls off the presses and into all good paper recycling facilities near you.  The contents list is a veritable who's that of climate science.  Tim Ball has an interesting paper entitled "Commie Bastards Make Up Climate Science", Willis Eschenbach has a paper on something to do with cycles and Jim Steele has a brilliant article on butterflies.  It is brilliant because it consists of only four words (not counting the seven pages of references).  In fact, it is so good that I can be bothered to type it all out:
I hate Camilla Parmesan.
A Jim Steele, not that Jim Steele (because he gets snitty)

 November

In the closing down, final edition of the International Thing of the Briefly Open Atmospherical Association, Anthony Watts squeezes out his famous paper, updated from 2012.  No one else in the world, even bottom feeding Chinese journals that will publish even Monckton's drivel, haven't published this one so the OAS vanity unit, immediately before bankruptcy, puts it out.  The world doesn't stop turning.  
borrowed from Greg Laden

December

As the last of the Arctic sea ice melts, Santa Claus puts out a press release explaining that the weather is so hot that he will be appearing in public in a Hawaiian shirt and Bermuda shorts.  In fact, he will be dividing his time in future between those two places because, frankly, although temperatures are more like central Europe now at the North Pole, the long nights in the used to be called Winter aren't worth it and he'd like to be a bit more sociable, going clubbing and late night shopping and, besides, everyone gets their presents from Amazon and Ebay these days so he's not needed.

Children everywhere go "Who?"

Josh draws an unfunny cartoon that the seven deniers left at WattsUpWithThat think is the funniest things they have seen since, whenever.  Who cares?


Have a great 2016, everyone, everywhere.

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Monckton moves the goalposts again

That pause.   Remember that pause?  The one that didn't exist other than as a figment in a calculation?  Yes, Monckton's dreary monthly commentary on the non-pause was the other week but since I was busy attending to my brother and his triple heart bypass, I wasn't paying attention enough to the sad old potty peer to look.


Now my brother is on the mend, I can.  And, lo, the three unwise men of the WUWT theoverse, Anthony Watts, Bob Tisdale and Chrissy Boy Monckton, have delivered us gold, Frankie Says T-shirts and Meh.
Lord Monckton, can you hear me?


And this time Monckton has moved the start point to (drum roll.......) March 1997.


Has he stopped to consider that a real world physical thing does not depend on finding a flat line but gives you a flat line and doesn't keep moving around.


Check his inane dribblings here.


https://archive.is/etlA2


He'll have to give up this lucrative set of sequels soon. 

Monday, 16 November 2015

Eight out of ten cats are correct, says Richard Tol

Professor Richard Tol has done some sums and come to the conclusion that, if you put a variety of cat meat products in front of a range of feline pets, incrementally, eighty per cent will choose one brand in particular over all the others. He revealed this information to Roger Harrabin on the BBC Radio 4 programme, I Know I Might Have Said Something Else But..., broadcast today.

 In other news, Professor Richard Tol has found 300 previously unknown climate science papers in the back of his wardrobe. He knew they must have been the ones he's been looking for as they were covered in snow and guarded by a pretty impressive lion. In other other news, Professor Richard Tol has said he was misquoted by Roger Harrabin who missed the word "gremlins" from the interview. The line in question should have read "Of course there were mistakes, gremlins, in my earlier analysis but I am such a wonderful person I couldn't possibly be wrong."

 In other, other, other news, Roger Harrabin says Richard Tol was quoted accurately, with the word gremlins included in the transcript.

 In ..... news, Richard Tol would like it to be known that he is not the same Professor Richard Tol who cannot learn from his mistakes, chases pointless arguments down a rabbit hole and doesn't like John Cook.